After receiving emergency text alerts about flash flooding after rivers had already begun overflowing on Sept. 27, some East Tennessee residents are looking to the next storm and wondering how best to stay informed on natural disasters like Hurricane Helene.
County emergency management agencies provide ways for residents to sign up for alerts, and many local agencies posted frequent updates and warnings to social media during the historic flooding.
In addition to alerts sent out by the National Weather Service in coordination with local emergency management officials, Tennessee residents can download the ReadyTN app, which includes real time emergency alerts, maps of open shelters, roadway conditions and emergency contacts. The app is available to download on Google Play and the App Store.
The National Weather Service office in Morristown regularly posts updates on its website and social media pages, though emergency texts during floods are only triggered when the office issues a "considerable" or "catastrophic" warning.
By Sept. 25, two days before Helene walloped East Tennessee, the office was already warning of “extreme risk of life-threatening flooding” along the Tennessee-North Carolina border.
The National Water Prediction Service, a product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicts flood risk and maintains real time water level gauges on rivers.
After an event like Helene, experts and local officials told Knox News in interviews, residents naturally pay greater attention to flood warnings and hazardous forecasts.
"People will learn a lot from this, and they will be more keyed into the messaging and warnings," said Alex Greer, an associate professor of emergency management at the University of Albany who grew up in East Tennessee.
It's too early for county officials to say how they may upgrade warnings for the next storm, though many already use federal systems.
What is IPAWS? Which counties have it?
The Integrated Public Alert and Warning System, run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, delivers authenticated warning messages to phones, TV and radio during emergency events. It is better known as IPAWS, and was created after Hurricane Katrina.
Residents don't need to sign up for IPAWS, though local jurisdictions can become alerting authorities with the ability to use the system to send out warning messages.
Of the eight hardest-hit East Tennessee counties that received a major disaster declaration from the Biden administration, five are IPAWS alerting authorities: Cocke, Green, Hawkins, Johnson and Washington. Three others – Carter, Hamblen and Unicoi – are not.
Residents in those counties still receive emergency alerts through other authorities, such as the National Weather Service.
Few East Tennessee counties have siren systems to warn of flooding, though some were used during Helene. The Roan Mountain Volunteer Fire Department sounded an emergency siren the morning of Sept. 27, according to posts from Carter County 911.
Sullivan County, which was spared from devastating floods, does not use sirens for floods or tornadoes, though the county has explored those options. The county is an IPAWS alerting authority.
"If there's a means of improving what we've got, whether it's notification or planning or whatever the situation is, we'll learn from what happened to other areas in the state," Jim Bean, director of the Sullivan County Emergency Management Agency, said.
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Emergency officials struggle to alert well
One major struggle emergency managers face is creating alerts that are accurate and keep people safe.
"If I tell you there's imminent danger and you need to leave your house, am I sending you into the imminent danger?" Greer, the emergency management professor, said. "If I do warn the public, what do they know to do based on their experiences?"
Greer's colleague at the University of Albany, Jeannette Sutton, maintains a website called The Warn Room, which provides a template for effective emergency alerts.
Alerts should include the reputable (and ideally local) source, the hazard name and description, location, consequences, protective action and what time to take the action.
In addition to making effective emergency alerts, Greer said local communities should update flood maps and rebuild homes at higher elevations. Individual households should get flood insurance if they can and prepare plans for future emergencies.
In the eight Tennessee counties damaged most by Helene, less than 1% of households have flood insurance.
Meteorologists try to avoid false alarms
Another concern for officials and experts making alerts is avoiding a false alarm. The National Weather Service waits until there is confirmation of "occurring or imminent” life-threatening flooding to send out an emergency alert, meteorologist Brandon Wasilewski told Knox News.
Helene was not a typical experience for East Tennessee residents, some of whom initially brushed off flood warnings. The rainfall was more than a 1,000-year event for southern Appalachia, according to the National Weather Service.
That doesn't mean it won't happen for another 1,000 years, but that there is a less than 0.1% chance of a similar rainfall in any given year.
"We talk about 100-year floodplains, and I think that's pretty bad nomenclature generally, because it makes people think, well, we just had a 100-year flood, so we have 100 more years that we're good, right?" Greer said.
Some years have multiple improbable weather events, and floods are becoming more common in East Tennessee, said WVLT meteorologist Ben Cathey.
Still, meteorologists on TV don't want to "cry wolf and scare people" with emergency alerts, said Cathey, who participated in research in 2023 on tornado warnings after a rare August tornado hit Knox County.
His main takeaway? It matters to meet people where they are, because not everyone sees forecasts.
"For this particular storm, it was so catastrophic and so above the normal that I'm just glad that more people in our own area of East Tennessee weren't killed," Cathey said of Helene. "I think in a lot of ways, the flood warnings worked to preserve lives."
Daniel Dassow is a growth and development reporter focused on technology and energy. Phone 423-637-0878. Emaildaniel.dassow@knoxnews.com.
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